深化学科认知与构建中国特色社会主义政治经济学理论体系

对学科的认知包括认识学科内涵、学科性质与任务、学科发展进路等核心问题,关系到如何构建学科体系,是学科建设的重要内容。从深化学科认知的视角,中国特色社会主义政治经济学的学科发展与理论体系构建,要坚持几个重大原则,包括把中国特色社会主义政治经济学建立在历史唯物主义的基础之上;要以生产关系分析为核心来构建中国特色社会主义政治经济学的理论范式;坚持以人民为中心是中国特色社会主义政治经济学的本质属性;把共同富裕作为中国特色社会主义政治经济学的逻辑主线;以问题为导向研究新时代中国特色社会主义建设的重大理论与实践问题;《中国特色社会主义政治经济学》教材要体现学科的创新发展。     

Big data driven cycle time parallel prediction for production planning in wafer manufacturing

Cycle time forecasting (CTF) is one of the most crucial issues for production planning to keep high delivery reliability in semiconductor wafer fabrication systems (SWFS). This paper proposes a novel data-intensive cycle time (CT) prediction system with parallel computing to rapidly forecast the CT of wafer lots with large datasets. First, a density peak based radial basis function network (DP-RBFN) is designed to forecast the CT with the diverse and agglomerative CT data. Second, the network learning method based on a clustering technique is proposed to determine the density peak. Third, a parallel computing approach for network training is proposed in order to speed up the training process with large scaled CT data. Finally, an experiment with respect to SWFS is presented, which demonstrates that the proposed CTF system can not only speed up the training process of the model but also outperform the radial basis function network, the back-propagation-network and multivariate regression methodology based CTF methods in terms of the mean absolute deviation and standard deviation.     

Do national political parties matter? Evidence from Italian municipalities

Recently several countries have experienced a drop in popularity of national political parties, accompanied by the success of independent movements (e.g. “Civic Lists” in Italy). I exploit the success of “Civic Lists” in Italian municipalities and use them as a comparison group for party-affiliated politicians, to test whether national parties affect fiscal discipline. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), I show that party-affiliated mayors are more fiscally responsible: they run lower deficits, accumulate less debt and reduce expenditures. The effect is significant only for municipalities not constrained by fiscal rules. This suggests that national parties act as a substitute for fiscal rules in constraining politicians. Besides, I provide evidence that the discipline of party-affiliated politicians is linked to better career prospects: party-affiliated mayors have a higher probability of being re-elected and better chances of being promoted to higher levels of government. Alternative stories find less support in the data.     

新制度经济学委托代理理论视野的拓展*

新制度经济学中的委托代理理论基于“经济人理性”假定，设计出了精密、精巧、精致的委托代理制度，有效化解了现代企业中委托人与代理人之间利益冲突并提升了企业运营效率。然而，现代企业实践已经证明，即使委托代理制度十分精密、精巧、精致，仍然没有彻底解决委托人与代理人之间的利益冲突和企业运营效率进一步提升问题。因此，必须拓展既有理论视野，从“经济人理性”假定拓展到“经济人+社会人+家庭人复合理性”假定，这样就能够实现委托代理理论视野的拓展。运用新制度经济学研究方法和双边对称信任数理模型表明：基于委托代理制度，进一步强化委托人与代理人之间双边对称信任度，可以进一步化解他们之间的利益冲突并且改善企业运营效率。基于这一结论，强化委托人与代理人之间双边对称信任度的具体路径是优化社会信任环境系统。     

Can commodity futures risk factors predict economic growth?

This paper examines whether commodity futures risk factors can predict future economic growth. We test risk factors capturing various spot or term premia and find that only three factors capturing term premia on the basis-momentum, basis, and change in slope are robust predictors for future economic growth, especially for long horizons. Our findings highlight the importance of the term premia, rather than the spot premia on which the literature has mainly focused. Moreover, we find that possible explanations for predictability of commodity factors—the intertemporal asset pricing model and information diffusion explanation—are all inconsistent with our empirical results.     

Dissecting interbank risk using basis swap spreads

This paper analyses interbank risk using the information content of basis swap (BS) spreads, floating-to-floating interest rate swaps whose payments are associated with euro deposit rates for alternative tenors. To identify the impact of shocks affecting interbank risk, we propose an empirical model that decomposes BS quotes into their expected and unexpected components. These unobservable constituents of BS spreads are estimated by solving a signal extraction problem using a particle filter. We find that expected components covariate with aggregate liquidity and risk aversion while systemic risk arises as the main driver behind unexpected fluctuations. Our empirical findings suggest that macroprudential analysis emerges as a key device to ease asset pricing in a new multi-curve scenario.     

Disentangling types of liquidity and testing limits-to-arbitrage theories in the CDS–bond basis

We disentangle asset-specific, market, and funding liquidity in the CDS–bond basis outside and during the 2007–9 global financial crisis. Our findings stress the importance of separating different types of liquidity, since all three measures have independently negative impacts on the basis. Funding liquidity emerges as the economically most important liquidity metric. While asset-specific liquidity is cross-correlated in both the cash and derivative markets, funding and market liquidity only matter for the cash market. We exploit the decomposition of the basis to test predictions of limits-to-arbitrage theories. We find strong evidence in favor of margin-based asset pricing and flight-to-quality effects.     

弘扬红船精神构筑全面从严治党新常态

以中国共产党成立为背景形成的红船精神,充分彰显了管党治党的科学理念,对中国社会主义革命、建设和改革事业的发展起了重要的激励和指导作用,成为我党不断夺取胜利的强大精神力量和宝贵精神财富。当前,在全面从严治党的新的历史时期,传承和延续红船精神仍然可以为从严治党新常态的构建提供强大的信仰根基、制度根柢和群众基础。     

从混沌理论哲学观对旅游学混沌态及学科体系探讨

从混沌理论哲学观,对旅游学混沌态进行了分析,将其分为"前科学阶段"混沌态和"内在随机性"混沌态,认为旅游学的"内在随机性"决定了旅游学多学科、交叉性的特点.从混沌学的"初值敏感性"理论,阐明了旅游研究应以游客为初始路径的观点.根据混沌理论,确定了体验和服务是旅游系统的两个奇异吸引子,并分析了它们之间的联系与区别.从旅游系统动力机制分析,提出了由体验维、服务维、影响维和信息、技术维等4个维度构成的旅游学科体系框架.     

从旅游学的研究角度看旅游高等教育

在高等教育改革的背景下 ,职业教育和专业教育的关系被进一步关注 ,而旅游行业本身的特点 ,对旅游高等教育提出了更多要求。本文着重从旅游学的研究角度 ,包括理论方面和研究现状 ,尤其是旅游学的基础理论、学科分支和学科成熟度等方面作了分析 ,提出对旅游学研究的把握是旅游高等教育安排中要深入考量的因素